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How to became a stock marketer for beginner


We’re going to walk through a quick review of where the u.s economy stands our goal with this article is to see if we can use different economic indicators to try to objectively gauge where the economy stands today and then we want to use that information to see if we can answer the question should we invest now or wait for another stock market crash okay let's jump right in because i've got a few additional economic indicators starting to run higher 

But i think it makes more sense in the light of this most recent pullback i think it makes sense to at least give both bulls and bears a point so we're gonna go neutral with this particular one so when we switch over to the scorecard they both get a point and that only happens once or twice on the economic indicators that we use okay now we shift over to the ism manufacturing index which is actually closely tied to the baltic dry index this economic indicator is supposed to measure the level of growth in the manufacturing sector within the united states so anything above 50 implies growth in manufacturing anything below 50 implies that the manufacturing sector is shrinking so clearly we just had a nice jump above 50 which is a sign of strength now it's possible that this is just a head fix sort of like we had right here but for now i think this seems like a positive sign for the overall economy manufacturing has been a weight dragging down the economy for a little while even before the coronavirus so in this case i think it makes sense to give this point to the bulls so jumping back to the scorecard they get a point so we're not looking too bad so far now we shift over to initial jobless claims okay so just looking at this chart or listening to any of the news we could tell that this has been quite terrible and the thing that actually concerns me the most about this is right here so we can explain why this jump happened and then the steep the steeper drop off well that was at least somewhat expected as things were sorting themselves up but it is concerning to me that when the number of jobs being lost on a weekly basis is this high and even inching slightly higher so either way this is going to be a point for the bears but before we go ahead to the scorecard and mark that one down let's shift over to unemployment this is another angle on the job situation and we can see right off the bat that this is going to be a point for the bears as well since any time there's 11 unemployment well that's not really a good 

Thing for the economy now it's still possible that a vaccine hits the market or we get some positive development with the coronavirus or at least anything in the pit from the pandemic perspective and clearly that would be a good thing and could drastically improve this number quickly and the jobless claims number but for now we have to add these two points for the bears now if we were adding weights to each of these indicators we're not just for the case of simplicity but if we were i would actually weigh the jobless claims as a more relevant number than the unemployment situation since unemployment is a lagging indicator or usually it's a lagging indicator and those numbers only come out once a month while the jobless numbers come out weekly so they're a bit more timely we could see it in a bit more real time okay either way now moving on to housing starts now this economic indicator tracks the number of new houses being built and once again the initial pullback well that makes a lot of sense thanks to the coronavirus and i'm glad to see that we saw a jump in the most recent number higher which could be a good thing but are we quite ready to call this a bullish move of course the jump higher is better but it's possible that this monthly economic indicator turns negative next month so from a scorecard perspective i think it might be a bit too soon to say that this is a point for the bulls i think it makes more sense to once again go neutral with this one and call it a point for the bulls and the bears okay now we shift over to a very important indicator in my mind this is consumer confidence and it's my belief that the stock market before the coronavirus especially on the tail end of the very long bull run that the economy had in the stock market had was that good because of this high consumer confidence level we can't forget that in this time period up here well the fed had begun to increase interest rates they had begun reducing their balance sheet and the stock market continued to move higher despite that those are two things that in theory could slow the stock market down and i believe that this was largely due to the consumer confidence levels so looking at today or even going forward well clearly this is a bad thing and what happens when well let me get rid of that line now what happens when now that consumer confidence is ticked back lower i saw it start to tick higher this is the downfall to having a monthly indicator but sorry i take higher but then it ticked lower again the question now is what happens going forward do we get a turn lower or do we get a turn higher either way it makes sense to give this point to the bears since clearly this is a negative thing for the economy so over on our scorecard well we've got yet another point for the bears okay next up for we've got a new economic indicator that i haven't used yet i haven't used in previous months and that's because it's a tricky indicator because it's not really an indicator and that is the federal reserve and the things that they're doing to influence the stock market and investors so let's look at one of the federal reserve's biggest tools and that is the fed funds rate and just so we're on the same page the fed funds rate is the interest rate that the federal reserve sets where banks can borrow and lend to each other on an overnight basis so just to do a quick summary every night each bank must hold a certain amount of cash on hand to meet various standards but so much activity happens during the day that sometimes banks don't have enough cash and other banks have too much cash so the bank that's short on cash might go ahead and borrow money borrow cash from the bank that has too much cash they borrow that at a predefined interest rate or it's really a negotiated interest rate but it's an overnight rate that the federal reserve sets oh yeah if the bank that has the extra cash doesn't want to lend the money well the other bank that needs somebody can also borrow from the federal reserve if they need to once again at the same rate so the fed funds rate is the rate paid by banks to each other once again on an overnight basis now 

We may have heard that the fed funds rate was set to zero and that's very true but the fed doesn't actually set an exact interest rate technically they set a range of interest rates the current low end of that range they called the lower bound is zero percent which is where all the news came from the high end is 12.25 so 0.25 percent or a quarter of one percent so if we were to zoom into this chart just a little bit just to this time period here well we can see that once the fed set the rate to zero in this time period well the rate has actually moved around slightly within that range last i checked it was trading at about 10 basis points 10 basis points is one tenth of one percent so 0.1 now i just wanted to point out how this works either way switching back to the long-term chart now soon but i don't think what they did here was terribly uncalled for i think it was actually an appropriate reaction quick side note what they're doing with the repo markets and what they're doing with buying debt that's a whole different story but we'll get into that in the other video but for now just for the sake of recognizing that the fed's involvement is not a it's not clearly a good thing or a bad thing i do think it's in the gray area so i think it makes sense for us right now to put this down as a neutral point since at least until we have the whole picture so when we do the next video on the federal reserve and how they're impacting the market we can adjust things done okay now we shift over to gdp now obviously when we look at what happens with gdp especially in this most recent time period well it's a tragedy so without a doubt this is going to be a point for the bears but and i think this is very important i do think that this number is not being presented in the right light now i'm not suggesting it's not bad it is it's terrible 

#How to became a stock  marketer for beginner
# stocks  marketer for beginner